Future currents: Electricity scenarios for New Zealand 2005-2050

Report summary

Future currents sketches two scenarios of New Zealand in 2015, 2030 and 2050 depending on today's energy choices. These scenarios are presented through the eyes of two fictional characters.

Fuelling the future, the first scenario, is strongly shaped by established ways of thinking. Building big power projects is seen as the key to a secure electricity supply.

The second scenario, Sparking new designs, sees huge potential in getting 'more from less' by re-thinking how we use electricity and other forms of energy. Businesses, communities and individuals are strongly encouraged to be innovative both in energy efficiency and in using more localised energy sources.

Despite the use of fictional characters and scenarios, Future Currents is underpinned by rigorous research and is accompanied by a 42-page technical report (280 KB pdf).

Commissioner's preface

New Zealand faces some tough energy decisions in the years ahead. Our electricity system is under strain through a lack of strategic planning over the past two decades, and our inability to 'plug in' to the electricity networks of other countries because of our geographic isolation.

Yet, if we can think about the problems differently, this is also a time of opportunity. For too long we have concentrated on the 'supply side' - how to generate more electricity and distribute it around the country.

We need to focus more on the 'demand side' - how to get more value out of the electricity we already produce. We need to draw more deeply on our resources of knowledge and expertise, and our ability to innovate.

Many initiatives will take place at the individual household and business level, so each of us can be involved in the 'doing'. This will open up many opportunities for small and medium sized businesses.

The lives of the two fictional characters in Future Currents will be very different depending on which path we take. This perspective is unusual in debates about electricity but, ultimately, the debate is about the kind of New Zealand we want to live in.